Bitcoin has soared past the $98,000 on Thursday, fueling intense debate among traders over whether the $100K milestone is again within reach or if the current rally is vulnerable to a swift correction. Behind the scenes, market observers point to surging open interest (OI) and increased leverage, spotlighting the possibility of a leverage-driven push.
Bitcoin Rally Or Trap?
CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) warned of a “leverage driven pump,” noting a $2.4B jump in Bitcoin’s OI within 24 hours. Via X, he wrote: “Leverage Driven Pump: $2.4B (7.2%) increase in Open Interest in Bitcoin over the past 24 hours.”
Confirming these observations, well-known crypto commentator Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) highlighted the significant role of fresh long positions in propelling prices higher: “Lots of fresh longs coming in here on BTC which is shoving price higher. Kinda funny that the entire market is getting lifted right now off the back of these degen longs here.”
Analysts from alpha dojo (@alphadojo_net) echoed sentiments of caution, underscoring a notable gap between futures-based open interest and spot-driven purchases: “BTC continues to grind upwards, while the OI rises steadily, but there is little spot buying. BTC is now approaching the upper end of the range again. It seems that some market participants have tried to frontrun Saylor‘s planned $2 billion bid.”
Though the prospect of a large buy could propel the market, they warn that without fresh catalysts like a “short-term narrative or positive news, it currently looks like BTC will struggle to sustainably pump above the $100k mark.”
Renowned crypto analyst Bob Loukas provided a cyclical framework for interpreting Bitcoin’s price movements, noting that the market may be approaching the end of one multi-week cycle and the start of another: “We’re on verge of completing a Bitcoin Weekly Cycle, as I’ve been sharing last 6 weeks. For context, there have been just 5 weekly Cycles since the 2022 bear market lows. (Avg 6month events). 4 of these cycles had 90-105% moves. One failed to do much (June-Sept 23).”
When asked if this signals an imminent market top, Loukas clarified:“I’m saying we’re about to begin a new one. Cycles always begin from the lows.” His comments suggest that while a cycle transition is imminent, it does not necessarily equate to a market peak—rather, it could mark the start of a new uptrend.
Technical analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) emphasized the significance of Bitcoin’s daily close above the $97,700 threshold, suggesting that a successful retest of this zone could pave the way for a move beyond $100,000: “The early-stage momentum generated by the Bullish Divergence has translated itself into this recent breakout move. And with the recent Daily Close above ~$97700, Bitcoin will now try to retest said level as support to enable trend continuation.”
He further elaborated on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) channel, implying that the break above a series of lower highs may signal the next leg up: “Over time, Bitcoin’s price continued to retest the blue trendline as support. And the RSI continued to hold its Channel Bottom. Lately, the RSI broke its series of Lower Highs, indicating that the RSI may be ready to uptrend to the Channel Top.”
Looking ahead, a clear retest of $97,700 as support could confirm Rekt Capital’s bullish outlook: “Daily Close above $97700 has been successful (light blue). Any dips into $97700 would constitute a retest attempt. A post-breakout retest of $97700 into new support would fully confirm the breakout to position BTC for a rally to $101k resistance.”
At press time, BTC traded at $98,645.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Jake Simmons
Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.
His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.
Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.
For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it’s a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.
As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.
In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.
You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.
Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
