A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could target $139,000 next, according to this on-chain pricing bands model.
Bitcoin Has Broken Past 0.5 SD MVRV Deviation Band
In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about where Bitcoin may be heading next based on the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. This pricing model is based on the popular Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, an indicator that compares the market cap of Bitcoin against its realized cap.
The former represents the value currently held by the BTC investors, while the latter is a measure of the value that they initially put in. As such, the MVRV Ratio basically represents the profit-loss balance of the overall network.
When the value of the metric is greater than 1, it means the market cap is greater than the realized cap and the average investor is sitting on an unrealized gain. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the investors as a whole may be considered underwater.
The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands takes the mean of the MVRV Ratio and calculates standard deviations (SDs) from it. It then determines price levels that correspond to these standard deviations. Below is the chart for this Bitcoin pricing model shared by the analyst.
As is visible in the graph, the mean of the MVRV Ratio is currently situated at $94,650 in the model. What this means is that if Bitcoin declines to this level, the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to its mean.
During BTC’s recent decline, its price slipped below the +0.5 SD level of $116,700. With the latest recovery run, however, it has smashed past it. The next level on the model is the +1 SD, located at $138,800.
Bitcoin has surged above this band twice in the current cycle so far, with a top following for the cryptocurrency shortly after each break. The explanation behind the trend could lie in the fact that investors become more likely to participate in profit-taking selloffs the higher their gains get.
The MVRV Ratio being 1 SD above its mean corresponds to holder gains being notably higher than the norm. As such, it’s not surprising to see that BTC topped out shortly after crossing the threshold during both of the 2024 breakouts.
It now remains to be seen whether this latest surge above the +0.5 SD level will lead Bitcoin to another retest of the +1 SD band, or if the run will fizzle out before it can happen.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has witnessed a recovery run of almost 7% over the last week that has taken its price to the $119,200 level.
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
