Why Bitcoin’s Calm Rally Could Be a Setup for a Massive Breakout, Analyst Reveals

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Why Bitcoin’s Calm Rally Could Be a Setup for a Massive Breakout, Analyst Reveals

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Bitcoin has returned to an upward trajectory, with the asset posting a 1.7% gain in the last 24 hours to reach $109,505. This marks a 4% increase in the past week, placing the cryptocurrency less than 2% below its all-time high of $111,000 set last month.

The move follows a period of subdued market activity, with recent gains occurring in a relatively quiet trading environment. Analysts have looked into on-chain indicators for signals of whether the current price action is sustainable or approaching overheated levels.

Particularly, unlike previous rallies driven by sharp price spikes and speculative retail demand, the latest growth appears more measured. This has prompted the assessment of metrics such as Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), MVRV ratio, and exchange premium indexes to gauge underlying investor behavior and sentiment.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders and US Demand Drive Quiet Accumulation

According to an analysis published on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform by contributor Avocado Onchain, Bitcoin’s current rally is taking shape under relatively stable conditions.

The analyst points to a declining 30-day moving average of Binary CDD, a metric that tracks the spending behavior of long-term holders. The decrease suggests that these holders are not yet exiting the market, indicating a continued confidence in the asset’s potential for further gains.

Another notable indicator cited in the analysis is the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference between Bitcoin prices on US-based Coinbase and other global exchanges. This premium is increasing and nearing levels observed during Bitcoin’s prior peaks in March and December 2024.

Bitcoin Korea Premium Index.
Bitcoin Korea Premium Index. | Source: CryptoQuant

While elevated premiums can be a warning sign of overheating, Avocado notes that the Korea Premium Index remains low, suggesting muted activity from retail traders in Asia. This balance implies that institutional buying pressure, particularly from US-based investors, could be driving the recent momentum.

In addition, the MVRV ratio, a comparison of Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has been rising gradually without any sharp jumps. This suggests that the market has not entered an extreme greed phase, further reinforcing the idea that the current uptrend may have more room to run.  Avocado wrote:

In summary, rather than anticipating a correction, the current indicators suggest that Bitcoin may have further room to grow, and this could be a time to carefully monitor the potential for continued upside.

Whale Activity and Institutional Inflows Signal Market Confidence

In a separate post, another CryptoQuant contributor known as Crypto Dan highlighted consistent buying activity from larger market players. His report notes that the Coinbase Premium has been climbing steadily since April 21, indicating increased demand from US investors.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap. | Source: CryptoQuant

This trend, combined with observations of whale accumulation, points to a strengthening market foundation despite the absence of exuberant price behavior.

The analyst further noted that such patterns are characteristic of post-correction recovery phases in Bitcoin’s historical price cycles. So far, the combination of long-term holder conviction, institutional demand, and subdued retail activity suggests the rally may be advancing on more stable footing than prior surges.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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