Bitcoin Extreme Greed Is Here—Time To Be A Contrarian?

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Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment has broken into the extreme greed territory following the cryptocurrency’s new high above $111,000.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Shot Up Recently

The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the sentiment held by the average trader in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The metric uses a numerical scale running from 0-100 in order to represent the sentiment. All values above 53 represent greed among the investors, while those below 47 indicate fear. The index lying between these two cutoffs implies a net neutral mentality.

Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ regions called the extreme greed (above 75) and extreme fear (below 25). At present, the market sentiment is inside the former of the two, according to the latest value of the Fear & Greed Index.

Bitcoin Extreme Greed
The index is at a value of 78 | Source: Alternative

Historically, the extreme sentiments have held much significance for Bitcoin and other digital assets, as they have been where major tops and bottoms have tended to form. The relationship has been an inverse one, however, meaning that an overly bullish atmosphere makes tops likely and an excess of despair bottoms.

Some traders exploit this fact in order to time their buy and sell moves. This trading technique is popularly known as contrarian investing. Warren Buffet’s famous quote sums up the core idea: “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

With the Bitcoin sentiment now making a return into the extreme greed region, it’s possible that followers of this philosophy may be starting to look toward the exit.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
The trend in the Fear & Greed Index over the past twelve months | Source: Alternative

That said, the Fear & Greed Index has a value of ‘just’ 78 at the moment. For comparison, the December top occurred at around 87 and the January one at 84. Earlier in the rally, the metric even hit a much higher peak of 94 in November.

As such, it’s possible that the current market may not be quite that overheated in terms of sentiment just yet, assuming demand from the investors doesn’t let off. It only remains to be seen, though, how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would evolve under this extreme greed.

Speaking of demand, whales have just made a significant amount of withdrawals from the Binance platform, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post.

Bitcoin Exchange Netflow
The Exchange Netflow for Binance has just seen a large red spike | Source: @JA_Maartun on X

The indicator displayed in the chart is the “Exchange Netflow,” which tells us about the net amount of Bitcoin that’s moving into or out of the wallets associated with a centralized exchange, which, in this case, is Binance.

Clearly, the Binance Exchange Netflow has observed a large negative value, implying that the investors have shifted a notable amount of coins out of the exchange. More specifically, net outflows for the platform have stood at 2,190 BTC or about $237 million.

This could potentially indicate demand from the big-money investors for HODLing the cryptocurrency in self-custodial wallets.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $108,400, up over 4% in the last seven days.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The price of the coin has seen a pullback in the past day | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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