Reason to trust
Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed
The highest standards in reporting and publishing
How Our News is Made
Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality
Ad discliamer
Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.
A quant has pointed out how the Mayer Multiple could suggest Bitcoin is still not overheated at $103,000 when compared to past trend.
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Z-Score Is Still Under Its Mean
In a post on X, quant Frank has talked about how the Mayer Multiple of Bitcoin is looking right now. The “Mayer Multiple” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the ratio between the BTC spot price and its 200-day moving average (MA). In other words, the metric represents the distance that the asset’s value has from the 200-day MA.
The 200-day MA is a level that’s generally considered as an important boundary between macro bullish and bearish trends in the cryptocurrency, so it can be useful to know how far the coin is from this line.
In the context of the current discussion, the Mayer Multiple itself isn’t of interest, but rather its Z-Score. The Mayer Multiple Z-Score is an oscillator that tracks how much deviation the indicator has from its mean value.
Now, here is the chart for the metric shared by the analyst:
As is visible in the top graph, the Bitcoin price saw a dip under the 200-day MA during the earlier market downturn, but with the latest recovery run, it has broken back above the line. It would seem, though, that the asset hasn’t gained too much distance over the level so far, at least in historical context.
And indeed, the Mayer Multiple Z-Score (bottom graph) confirms this, as its value is currently below zero. The zero level corresponds to the all-time mean of the Mayer Multiple. As such, a negative value like the current one suggests the metric is less than the average over history.
More specifically, 53% of all days have witnessed the ratio being higher than the latest level. Based on this, the quant notes that Bitcoin remains relatively cool even at its current $103,000 price.
From the chart, it’s visible that while the Z-Score is still negative, it’s much improved compared to the lows from earlier in the year. It’s possible that if BTC continues its bullish momentum, it will be challenging the zero level soon.
In the current cycle, the Mayer Multiple has been higher than its mean on a few occasions already, with the largest separation occurring in the rally from Q1 2024, where the Z-Score surged above the level corresponding to a standard deviation of 1.
So far, though, the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple hasn’t deviated to the same degree as during the bull run from the first half of 2021. It now remains to be seen whether the metric would heat up to similar levels in this cycle as well or not.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $102,700, down 1.5% over the last seven days.
Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
