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On-chain data shows the profit margin of the Bitcoin long-term holders is currently the same as when BTC was still $85,000. Here’s what’s behind this.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder NUPL Has Returned To 0.69
In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the trend in the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for the Bitcoin long-term holders. The NUPL is an indicator that keeps track of the difference between the unrealized profit and unrealized loss held by the BTC investors as a whole.
When the value of this metric is positive, it means the holders are carrying more profit than loss. On the other hand, it being under zero suggests the average address is underwater.
In the context of the current topic, the NUPL of the entire network isn’t of relevance, but rather that of just one segment of it: the long-term holders (LTHs). The LTHs refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.
Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NUPL for the LTHs over the past year:
As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin LTH NUPL has remained above the zero level for the past year, implying that the HODLers of the market have stayed in the green.
But naturally, as the BTC price has shown some volatile moves in this period, the indicator’s value has also witnessed some fluctuations. From the chart, it’s apparent that the bull run at the end of 2024 took the indicator into an extreme territory, but the market downturn this year resulted in a cooldown for it.
With the recent price recovery run, the metric again noted a reversal, but even at its peak, it still couldn’t come close to touching the high from the earlier bull run.
An interesting trend has followed since this latest peak in the Bitcoin LTH NUPL; the indicator has observed a sharp retrace, despite the fact that the coin’s value has only been moving flat in this window.
The metric is now sitting at 0.69, which is the same level as back at the start of April, when the cryptocurrency was still just trading around $85,000. What’s making it so that HODLer profitability is the same today despite the price being notably higher? And what’s the reason for the latest decline in the metric even though the price has been going sideways?
The answer to these questions lies in what the LTH group represents. As mentioned earlier, this cohort includes investors who purchased their Bitcoin within the past 155 days. This five-month cutoff now includes the buyers from December 2024.
In other words, the promotion of these top buyers into the group has diluted the unrealized gain among its members.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,500, up over 1% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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