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According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Carmelo Aleman, Bitcoin (BTC) is “still far from a true supply shock.” The analyst cited several on-chain metrics to argue that despite declining exchange reserves, the leading cryptocurrency is unlikely to face genuine supply scarcity in the near term.
Bitcoin Supply Shock? Not Just Yet
Since April 21, BTC has been trading within a tight range between $91,500 and $95,800, offering few signals about its next directional move. While some analysts have repeatedly highlighted a potential supply shock that could drive Bitcoin’s price much higher, Aleman’s analysis offers a more cautious outlook.
According to Aleman, BTC reserves on centralized exchanges (CEXs) have declined steadily over the past year. Specifically, reserves dropped from 2,942,077 BTC on November 11, to 2,490,318 BTC as of April 28 – marking a 15.35% decrease in just five months.
During the same period, Bitcoin’s Realized Capitalization – a metric that calculates the total value of BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved – has surged from $669.32 billion to $883.03 billion. This reflects an increase in the actual capital invested in the Bitcoin network, rather than market speculation alone.
Aleman explains that as BTC becomes more “expensive,” a purchase of approximately 500,000 BTC at current prices could potentially drive the cryptocurrency’s price to $130,000–$140,000. However, he cautions that such a scenario would likely trigger significant selling pressure from miners. He adds:
This behavior could counteract the decline in exchange reserves, since historically, miners tend to sell more as the price goes up. So even if reserves keep falling, a price surge would likely encourage enough selling to partially offset that drop.
The analyst concludes that a true supply shock in this market cycle is unlikely unless Bitcoin sees a massive influx of capital – enough to push its Realized Capitalization to three or four times its current level.
Technicals Point Toward BTC Breakout
Despite the low probability of a supply-driven rally, all is not lost for the leading digital asset. Several technical indicators point toward an impending bullish rally for the cryptocurrency.
Notably, Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently broke a long-standing downward trendline, indicating a potential momentum shift. This development could help BTC reclaim the $100,000 mark in the coming weeks.
In addition, recent on-chain data shows that short-term holders are refraining from selling their BTC – even while in the red – which may signal growing investor confidence and a potential bullish reversal. At press time, BTC trades at $94,374, down 0.4% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image created with Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand.
Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance.
In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects.
A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution.
When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights.
Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries.
Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.
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