Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Massive Drawdown, But Here’s Why a Bull Run Might Be Brewing

bitcoin-spot-etfs-see-massive-drawdown,-but-here’s-why-a-bull-run-might-be-brewing
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Massive Drawdown, But Here's Why a Bull Run Might Be Brewing

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Bitcoin has now been seeing a consistent price increase, indicating a resumption in upward momentum. So far, the asset has regained some of its losses from its recent period of correction, with its price now trading above $87,000, closing in on the $90,000 psychological level.

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $87,361, surging a 3.4% in the past day. Interestingly, despite the positive price movement, underlying activity in the broader Bitcoin market presents a more complex narrative.

While spot price action appears relatively stable, significant outflows have been recorded from Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), suggesting that institutional flows may not be aligning with the current rally.

This contrast has led analysts to examine market dynamics beyond just price, particularly through the lens of on-chain behavior and historical patterns.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Outflows Reach Record Levels Amid Steady Price Action

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost highlights an ongoing trend of capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to the data, over $4.8 billion has exited these products since they reached their cumulative inflow peak.

Notably, this marks the largest drawdown since the ETFs were launched, signaling a shift in institutional behavior. However, Bitcoin’s price has shown limited sensitivity to this decline in ETF holdings, maintaining relative stability despite what might otherwise be interpreted as bearish pressure.

Bitcoin ETF drawdown from all-time high.
Bitcoin ETF drawdown from all-time high. | Source: CryptoQuant

Darkfost contextualized this by noting that ETF volumes currently represent around 1.5% of the total aggregated trading volume when factoring in both spot and futures markets.

This suggests that although the ETF outflows are numerically significant, their overall impact on market structure may be limited due to the broader scale of liquidity available through other instruments.

The data imply that short-term fluctuations in ETF holdings may not directly dictate market direction, particularly in periods of strong retail or futures-driven participation.

Historical On-Chain Indicators Suggest a Potential Cycle Repeat

Another CryptoQuant analyst, BilalHuseynov, examined long-term on-chain indicators and noted similarities between the current cycle and previous market phases.

Drawing comparisons between 2018 and 2025, the analyst highlighted how Bitcoin’s recent price movement mirrors the behavior observed at the end of the 2018 bear market.

Bitcoin bull and bear market
Bitcoin bull and bear market. | Source: CryptoQuant

According to the analysis, historical patterns suggest a potential turning point, where bearish sentiment transitions into a longer-term bullish trend. BilalHuseynov wrote:

After an extended period in the red zone, Bitcoin is once again approaching a key threshold. The structure of the recovery and sentiment indicators appears aligned with those seen in previous transitions from downturn to uptrend.

While the analyst acknowledged that macroeconomic variables and market sentiment can still alter the outcome, the pattern recognition suggests that historical precedent could offer insight into the present market state.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Samuel Edyme

Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

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