Bitcoin Realized Cap Sets New Record, But Momentum Fades

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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap has surged to a new all-time high (ATH) recently, but monthly inflows have slowed down considerably.

Bitcoin Realized Cap Is Growing At A Notably Slower Rate Now

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the Realized Cap of Bitcoin has just set a new record. The “Realized Cap” here refers to a capitalization model for Bitcoin that calculates the asset’s total value by assuming the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the network.

The last transaction of a given coin is likely to represent the last point at which it changed hands, so the price at the time of the move would denote the coin’s current cost basis.

As the Realized Cap sums up this acquisition value for all tokens part of the circulating supply, it essentially determines the amount of capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase Bitcoin.

Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in its value over the last few years:

Bitcoin Realized Cap
The value of the metric appears to have been going up in recent months | Source: Glassnode on X

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realizzed Cap has been following an uptrend for a while now. Whenever the indicator’s value rises, it means a net amount of capital is flowing into the cryptocurrency. Thus, the long-term surge would imply BTC has been enjoying continuous inflows.

That said, while capital has been flowing in without break, the growth rate has fluctuated over the cycle. From the chart, it’s visible that the Realized Cap saw a particularly sharp rise during two periods: Q1 2024 and Q4 2024.

The Q1 2024 phase was followed by a rapid slowdown in capital inflowsm and so far, it would appear that the Q4 2024 one has been seeing something similar. At the height of inflows in December, the growth rate of the metric stood at around 13% per month. Today, this value has declined to just 0.9% per month.

Growth is still continuing, of course, and the indicator has managed to set a new record of $872 billion. But as Glassnode has explained, the slowdown could indicate “investor appetite is softening – signaling continued risk-off sentiment.”

Both the periods of fresh capital inflows last year coincided with bull rallies for Bitcoin, while the phase of slowdown in between the two resulted in bearish consolidation for the cryptocurrency.

The latest drop in Realized Cap growth has so far resulted in a notable drawdown for the asset’s price. Given the trend of last year, it’s possible that a proper reversal may not happen for BTC until the metric catches a sharper uptrend.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement over the last few days as its price is still floating around the $84,700 mark.

Bitcoin Price Chart
Looks like the price of the coin has been flat recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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