Project 11, a quantum computing research company, announced a competition titled the Q-Day Prize on April 16, 2025. To win, participants must break the largest portion of a toy version of Bitcoin’s ECC key using Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer. The deadline is April 5, 2026. The prize: 1 BTC.
The mission behind the competition
According to researchers, quantum computers will be capable of instantly solving tasks that modern-day computers would need 47 years to complete. Such computational power is widely seen as a threat to cryptocurrency networks, as they would be able to brute-force encrypted data. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are especially vulnerable, as newer coins were made with quantum resistance in mind.
Although some see the contest as a threat to Bitcoin’s security, Project 11 claims the real mission is to avoid future security breaches associated with quantum computing progress, estimate the risks, and take proper action to respond to the threat in time.
10 million+ addresses have exposed public keys.
Quantum computing is steadily progressing.
Nobody has rigorously benchmarked this threat yet.
— Project 11 (@qdayclock) April 16, 2025
As Project 11 puts it in the announcement on the company’s X account, the mission is to protect six million bitcoins. Project 11 explains that currently, Bitcoin’s security heavily relies on elliptic curve cryptography, allegedly vulnerable to quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm. Breaking this protection is a question of time. The idea behind the competition is to benchmark this threat and get practical data to work with in creating solutions that will protect the Bitcoin network from quantum computers.
According to the conditions list, Project 11 does not anticipate that someone will break the entire Bitcoin key. The company urges competitors to try to break small portions of the 256-bit key. Project 11 offers toy keys from 1 to 25 bits in length. As the company puts it, even breaking a 3-bit key would be big news.
Importance for transparency
Project 11 emphasizes the need for transparent stress testing, open to all, to provide an honest and clear picture of how real the quantum threat is.
Here’s what the company itself says on the matter:
“Quantum computing is advancing fast, and the impact on cryptography is inevitable. Instead of waiting for breakthroughs to happen behind closed doors, we believe in facing this challenge head-on in a transparent and rigorous manner.
The QDay Prize is about testing real quantum capabilities, staking out the frontier of cryptanalysis, and ensuring the world is ready for what comes next. The future of cryptography depends on it.”
Awarding people for cracking Bitcoin key cryptography is also a bold move that may increase awareness about the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin, as not everyone in the community knows about it, and many downplay this danger.
Transparency of the competition will ensure the threat is real and not something made up. Thanks to the submitted task solutions being visible to everyone, the threat may become auditable and reminiscent of open-source software in this regard.
How real is the quantum computing threat?
Project 11 notes that no one has ever managed to break any ECC key used in real-life cryptography, either via classical methods or quantum computing. Nevertheless, quantum computing keeps evolving, and the threat is real. The Project 11 website mentions that the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is actively transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC), as widely adopted ECC is considered vulnerable to potential quantum attacks. Several brands of wallets now promote themselves as quantum-resistant ledgers.
According to existing estimations, a quantum computer needs to reach 2,000 qubits to break ECC keys. Currently, various companies work on quantum chips. Yet, their capacity is far beyond the 2,000 qubits. For instance, Google’s Willow chip reaches 105 qubits. IBM’s Heron is more powerful, with 150 qubits. QuEra is a quantum computing-focused company. Its analog quantum computer allegedly reaches the 256 qubits mark.
Various prominent experts and professionals in the cryptocurrency community have voiced their concerns about the potential dangers of quantum computation for Bitcoin.
Opinions
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino took to X to convey his optimistic stance on the future of Bitcoin in the quantum computing era. He seemingly doesn’t doubt that quantum computers will eventually crack the ECC key. By that time, a solution will already have been found, and all Bitcoin owners will have moved their assets to quantum-resistant addresses. The “lost wallets,” including Satoshi’s addresses, will be hacked, and those coins will enter circulation.
Prediction.
Quantum computing is still very far from any meaningful risk of breaking Bitcoin cryptography.
Quantum resistant addresses will eventually be added to Bitcoin before there is any serious threat.All people alive (and that have access to their wallets) will move…
— Paolo Ardoino 🤖 (@paoloardoino) February 8, 2025
John Lilic of Telos Blockchain outlines the opposite side of the quantum computer use case. He points out that they can be used not to loot crypto from wallets with lost keys but to give legitimate owners an opportunity to regain access to their locked bitcoins.
This is just the start. I’d bet my bottom dollar that ppl who have lost BTC or ETH (lots of unclaimed ICO genesis accounts) have already approached companies like Psi Quantum to *legally* recover their lost coins for a hefty finders fee.https://t.co/8fvrM82nHV
— John Lilic (@LilicJohn) April 17, 2025
Different experts estimate that quantum computers will enter the picture between 2030 and 2050. Either way, there is enough time for developers to come up with protection measures, while even modern-day technologies allow people to protect their coins. Quantum computers are harmless for those using cold wallets, multisig wallets, or modern quantum-resistant wallets.
