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In a series of posts shared on X, crypto analyst Kevin has mapped out a bullish scenario for Dogecoin and altcoins should the US Federal Reserve shift its monetary policy toward easing later this year. Pointing to both fundamental and technical indicators, Kevin contends that current Federal Reserve policies will define the exact moment altcoins begin to decisively outperform Bitcoin (BTC).
Dogecoin Season Depends On The Fed
In one of his updates, Kevin explained the crux of his position: “Everything is continuing to go exactly as planned. We never hopped on the #ALTSEASON bandwagon that the gurus have been pushing for 6-12 months that got people wrecked. I have continued to let my altcoins guidance be backed up by facts and fundamentals […] Based on all my evidence gathered I do still believe that between March-June we will see Powell come out and say that bank reserves have hit levels to where they feel it is necessary to end the run off of the balance sheet which in turn will end QT.”
He further emphasized that this potential pause—and eventual reversal—of quantitative tightening (QT) should initiate a new cycle of rate cuts and broader financial easing. According to Kevin, that combined macro shift would signal the beginning of a sustained altcoin rally: “This will then start a new cycle of easing along with further rate cuts and the combination should mark the beginning of Altcoins out performance and BTC Dominance durably heading lower. That is my call based of Macro Fundamental and Technical analysis being combined into one form of Analysis.”
Digging deeper into market structure, Kevin forecasts a drop in Bitcoin dominance, a metric that measures BTC’s market capitalization relative to the entire crypto sector: “All the data I have been analyzing is telling me between March – June QT will end. Then altcoins durable out performance will begin and BTC Dominance will durably fall below 54.51%.”
He notes that inflation would need to “skyrocket” for the Federal Reserve to continue QT, a scenario he views as unlikely based on his research.
Pointing to similarities between current market conditions and 2019, Kevin also explores a somewhat unconventional approach—performing technical analysis (TA) on the Fed’s balance sheet itself: “If we take a look at Total Assets held by the US federal Reserve […] we can see that similar to 2019 we are getting close to re-testing the 2W 200 ema and 2W RSI and LMACD are in the same spot they were before the Fed ended QT.”
He anticipates that balance sheet levels could mirror 2019 conditions within the next 126 days—leading up to around the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting, give or take a couple of weeks. Should the Fed’s total assets hit that threshold, he believes it will confirm the timing he has been advocating.
While Kevin references the broader altcoin market, Dogecoin, in particular, features in his strategic outlook. Last week, he underscored the importance of overall market fundamentals and chart positioning when it comes to purchasing DOGE: “If #BTC holds up and Macro Economic Data and Monetary policy adjust then you just got your last opportunity to buy Dogecoin relatively cheap. A lot of factors at play and lots of work to do. But the risk reward at this level is superb given the circumstances.”
At press time, Dogecoin traded at $0.17.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.
His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.
Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.
For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it’s a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.
As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.
In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.
You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.
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