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In the ongoing debate over Bitcoin’s market trajectory, two prominent crypto analysts have shared contrasting viewpoints on X, underscoring the community’s divided sentiment. While one maintains that a drastic downturn remains possible, the other posits that the worst of the market downturn has already passed—citing a notable 87.5% probability.
Bitcoin Bears In Trouble?
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) posted on X and laid out two potential paths for Bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: A) Bottom to be 68-74k region in normal market, B) Full crash towards 50k in Black Swan event.”
He did not provide a specific probability for either outcome but emphasized that a Black Swan event—a term used to describe a rare, unexpected event that can drastically impact markets—cannot be ruled out. While noting that such an extraordinary downturn was previously unlikely, he now concedes that recent shifts in the macro landscape may leave room for it:“Take your bets, I would say that a Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I would not rule it out, rather welcome it.”
In direct contrast, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) responded with a more bullish outlook, asserting that the bottom is already behind us. He referenced a track record of Bitcoin price reversals around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, claiming it works “14 out of 16 times,” or roughly 87.5% of the time. “Not guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, granted the chart below and all the confluences I already presented. So far so good.”
His approach relies on mapping out price movements in proximity to FOMC dates, noting that markets often price in interest rate decisions (and related news) before official announcements. Astronomer’s method contends that Bitcoin typically finds local bottoms in a window spanning from up to five “2D bars” before an FOMC date to the day of the meeting itself.
“All it requires is flip on a daily (or 2 daily in my case to keep the chart clean) timeframe, plot out all the dates FOMC meeting appeared, and see what price did. This shows that indeed price tends to reverse when time is nearing into FOMC. The caveat is that the price reverses before or at the very latest, right at the FOMC day,” the analyst writes.
He points out that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, meaning the bottom—if the historical pattern holds—should appear no later than that date: “Works almost every time, 14 out of 16 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time)… The time difference the bottom happens versus the FOMC day is usually 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Given the next FOMC is the 19th of March, that means the low is in the latest that day and the earliest the 5th of March.”
To bolster his argument, Astronomer points to what he perceives as “peaking fear” in the market. He views heightened pessimism and “cautionary posts out of nowhere” from established traders as typical signals that a rebound could be imminent: “Sentiment wise, fear is peaking to hilarious levels. Even ‘Reputable’ traders are protecting their reputation […] I don’t blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a great sign of a bottom.”
At press time, BTC traded at $83,277.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.
His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.
Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.
For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it’s a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.
As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.
In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.
You can engage with his latest takes on Twitter: @realJakeSimmons.
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