Bitcoin Cycle Top Still Not In, Suggests NVT Golden Cross

bitcoin-cycle-top-still-not-in,-suggests-nvt-golden-cross
Bitcoin

Reason to trust

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed

The highest standards in reporting and publishing

How Our News is Made

Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality

Ad discliamer

Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio.

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has still not breached into the territory that marked the tops of previous cycles.

30-Day EMA Of Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Still Below Overheated Zone

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is yet to hit an extreme level in the current cycle. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio between BTC’s market cap and transaction volume.

When the value of this metric is high, it means the value of the network (as represented by the market cap) is high compared to its ability to transact coins (the volume). Such a trend can be a sign that the asset may be overvalued. On the other hand, the indicator having a low value can imply the cryptocurrency’s price could have room to grow as its market cap isn’t inflated against its transaction volume.

In the context of the current discussion, a modified form of the NVT Ratio called the NVT Golden Cross is the indicator of interest. This metric is a Bollinger-band-like signaling indicator that compares the short-term trend of the NVT Ratio (10-day moving average) against its long-term trend (30-day MA) to determine whether the indicator is near a top or bottom.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Bitcoin NVT Ratio over the past decade:

Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross
The value of the metric appears to be at a neutral value at the moment | Source: CryptoQuant

As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day EMA Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross currently has a value of around zero, which suggests the market is in a neutral phase according to the NVT Ratio.

In the chart, the quant has highlighted the zones where tops and bottoms have historically tended to occur. It would appear that a highly positive value generally signals some sort of top for BTC, while a negative one can lead to a bottom.

In the current cycle so far, the indicator hasn’t seen any spike into the red zone. Whether this means that this bull market is an exception, or that Bitcoin is yet to reach its top, only remains to be seen.

While Bitcoin market conditions are neutral from the perspective of the NVT Golden Cross, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index is painting a different picture. As the analytics firm’s community analyst has noted in an X post, this indicator, which combines the data of several key on-chain metrics, is flashing a bear signal for the asset.

CryptoQuant Bull Score Index
How the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index has changed over the past year | Source: @JA_Maartun on X

BTC Price

Bitcoin surged toward $114,000 on Tuesday, but it would appear that the recovery was only short-lived as the coin is already back at $108,000.

Bitcoin Price Chart
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Keshav Verma

Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

Related Posts

Leave a Reply