XRP price hovers just under $3 as traders brace for mid-October exchange-traded fund decisions, with momentum flat amid the U.S. government shutdown and fading trading activity.
Summary
- XRP trades steady at $2.82 ahead of key October catalysts.
- Trading activity remains muted as ETF decisions near.
- Market sentiment has stayed cautious amid U.S. government shutdown.
XRP was trading at about $2.82 at press time, down 1% from the previous day. The token has held steady between $2.83 and $3.09 over the past week, indicating consolidation rather than capitulation. With sentiment in the altcoin market waning, it is currently around 22% below its July peak of $3.65.
Trading activity has decreased. After weeks of speculative positioning, XRP (XRP) traders appear to be retreating as daily volume dropped to $4.38 billion, down almost 38% from the day before. The same pattern can be seen in derivatives activity.
According to CoinGlass data. open interest slightly declined to about $8.47 billion and futures volumes decreased more than 40%. As traders await clarification from regulators later this month, the slight drop in open interest suggests that they may be winding down leveraged positions.
XRP ETF decision deadlines approach
October is supposed to be a milestone month for XRP, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission due to deliver multiple ETF rulings between Oct. 18 and 25. Several major issuers — including Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares — have applications pending for both spot and futures-based XRP funds.
Optimism had been building through September after the SEC approved simplified listing rules for commodity-based ETFs, a move analysts saw as opening the door to altcoin products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
That optimism has since been tempered by Washington’s latest budget standoff. The SEC has had to furlough most of its employees due to the U.S. government shutdown, which started on Oct. 1. This has caused regular reviews to stop and may delay ETF decisions.
The timing could not be worse for XRP, as the market had priced in the possibility of approvals driving billions of dollars in inflows. Analysts say any delay could dampen near-term momentum, though expectations for eventual approval remain high following Ripple’s 2024 settlement that clarified XRP’s non-security status in secondary markets.
XRP price technical analysis
On the technical front, XRP appears to be moving sideways. The daily chart shows price hovering just below the middle Bollinger Band near $2.89, suggesting a neutral phase between buyers and sellers.
The relative strength index, which is currently at 43, is neutral with no strong directional momentum. Moving averages across most short-term periods also tilt slightly bearish, with price trading under both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. The longer-term structure is still intact, as the 200-day moving average is still positive at $2.64.
Analysts believe XRP may attempt to revisit the $3.30 region, which acted as resistance earlier this year, if buying pressure returns and the price closes firmly above $3.10. If ETFs are approved, price targets range from $3.30-$5 short-term to over $12 by Q4 end, based on historical ETF-driven rallies.
On the other hand, a decline below $2.70 could lead to a more significant correction in the direction towards $2.50, where support from earlier consolidation lies.
