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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has surged into a zone that has historically signaled overpriced conditions for the asset.
Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Has Crossed Above 2.2
In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has talked about the latest trend in the NVT Golden Cross of Bitcoin. The NVT Golden Cross is an indicator based on another metric known as the NVT Ratio.
The NVT Ratio keeps track of the ratio between the BTC market cap and transaction volume. The idea behind the indicator is that the ability to transact coins (as gauged by the transaction volume) could be considered as a reflection of the asset’s ‘fair value.’
Thus, through the comparison of the cryptocurrency’s current value (that is, the market cap) with this fair value, the metric can tell us about whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.
When the value of the metric is high, it means the market cap is high compared to the transaction volume. Such a trend could imply BTC may be becoming overheated. On the other hand, the indicator being low could suggest room for the coin to grow relative to its volume.
Now, the NVT Golden Cross, the actual metric of relevance here, is a signaling indicator like the Bollinger bands for the NVT Ratio that aims to locate tops and bottoms in its value. The NVT Golden Cross does so by comparing the short-term trend (represented by the 10-day MA) with the long-term one (30-day MA).
Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the metric over the last couple of years.
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has recently registered a sharp uptick and entered into the region above the 2.2 mark (highlighted in red).
This zone is where the cryptocurrency’s market cap has historically outpaced the transaction volume to a degree that a reversion to the mean has tended to occur. In other words, it’s where price corrections to the downside have taken place for the asset.
Though, it’s visible from the chart that not every top in the NVT Golden Cross inside this territory coincides with a price top. And in many instances that it does, the decline in the asset isn’t to some major degree.
So far since the signal has appeared, however, the asset has indeed been going down, a potential sign that the same reversion effect may be in play once more. It now remains to be seen whether downside will be limited, or if this will be one of those instances where the signal was followed by an extended drawdown.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,700, down almost 5% in the last seven days.
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
