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XRP has slipped above the descending trendline that had repelled every rally since February, yet derivatives positioning suggests the apparent breakout may still end with a shake-out, according to independent market technician CasiTrades. The four-hour Binance chart shows the token gravitating around $2.32, fractionally north of the wedge’s upper boundary, but only a heartbeat away from surrendering that gain if leverage forces unwind.
XRP Crash Imminent?
Casi frames the set-up in Elliott-wave terms, maintaining that the January–June advance completed a wave (1) at roughly $2.70 and then corrected to $2.02 at the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, thereby sketching wave (2) against the wedge’s base. The technician argues that the new thrust above resistance could mark the birth of wave (3), although funding dynamics cloud that bullish reading. “We’re just days away from the apex of XRP’s macro consolidation and price is hovering above support, while funding quietly climbs,” she wrote on X. “That’s a dangerous combo.”
Eight-hour funding rates have already reached 0.01 percent. Casi insists that if they expand to 0.02 percent without a decisive price march, algorithms will hunt the liquidity pooling beneath 2.25 dollars. “As of this morning, funding rates are ticking up to 0.01 %/8h without any meaningful breakout attempt,” she explained.
“If we start to reach 0.02 % or higher with no move, it signals a high probability of a liquidity sweep to the downside.” The technician warns that such a flush would drag XRP through the reclaimed breakout level and expose $2.01, $1.90 dollars and potentially $1.55. “That puts 2.01, 1.90 and even 1.55 in play if 2.25 fails,” she cautioned, adding that the capitulation itself “would likely generate the exact momentum needed for a powerful wave 3 breakout.”
The momentum backdrop remains ambivalent. The fourteen-period RSI on the same chart hovers near 62.5 yet registers lower peaks while price edges upward, hinting at a bearish divergence that often accompanies volatility spikes. Still, the break above the black trendline cannot be ignored: if sellers fail to reclaim that line swiftly, Casi’s projection of wave (3) targets $3.77 via the classic 1.618 external Fibonacci extension, with a still larger-degree objective above $4.40 dollars later this summer.
Casi summarises the juncture bluntly: “Volatility is nearly inevitable. Whether it’s one last dip or a significant breakout, the next move is likely to define the rest of the summer.”
Traders therefore face a binary path. Either rising funding catalyses a liquidity sweep toward $1.55 dollars before catapulting XRP higher, or the token consolidates above $2.25 and turns the nascent breakout into a springboard toward $2.69 dollars, the barrier near $3.04 and, eventually, the 3.77-dollar wave (3) objective.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.25.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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