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Bitcoin has faced renewed volatility since late May, with the market retracing from recent highs and injecting a fresh dose of uncertainty across the board. While price action has cooled, BTC continues to hold above key levels that bulls are watching closely. The broader sentiment remains fragile, and many investors are on edge, unsure if this is a healthy pause or a setup for deeper downside.
Analysts are calling for a decisive move above the all-time high to confirm trend continuation, but so far, momentum remains limited. The risk of a further decline still hangs over the market, especially with macro headwinds unresolved and liquidity tight.
Top analyst Daan shared a timely technical update, highlighting that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have tested their respective 4-hour 200MA and EMA and bounced. These moving averages are closely watched for short-term trend shifts. The fact that both assets respected them as support could be a subtle but important signal. Still, this bounce needs follow-through. Without a strong push higher, traders may lose conviction, and the window for reclaiming bullish momentum could narrow quickly in the days ahead.
Bitcoin Outperforms But Market Risks Loom
Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range just below its all-time high, struggling to break out with conviction but showing clear resilience. Despite repeated attempts from bears, BTC has held above the critical $100,000 psychological level — a key sign of strength as many altcoins lag behind or lose momentum. While some traders remain cautious, Bitcoin’s relative outperformance is beginning to stand out, hinting at the possibility of a decisive move brewing beneath the surface.
This strength, however, comes amid rising uncertainty in the broader macro environment. The US economy is entering a more fragile phase, with tightening credit conditions, stubborn inflation, and weakening labor data adding pressure. These developments raise the stakes for risk assets, including Bitcoin, which has historically thrived during expansionary periods but often struggles when liquidity tightens.
Daan shared a critical technical update that could help map Bitcoin’s short- and mid-term direction. According to his analysis, both BTC and ETH recently tested their respective 4-hour 200 moving averages (MA) and exponential moving averages (EMA), and successfully bounced from those levels. These indicators are often seen as key dynamic supports during trend formation. If price continues to hold above them, bulls remain in control. But if these levels give way, momentum could flip quickly, opening the door to deeper retracements.
For now, the structure still favors the bulls, but the margin for error is shrinking. With Bitcoin holding steady while macro conditions wobble, the next move could set the tone for the rest of the summer. Traders and long-term holders alike should keep an eye on how BTC reacts to these key support zones in the coming days.
Bulls Reclaim Key Levels
Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery after bouncing from the $103,600 support zone, as seen in the 4-hour chart. The recent drop to this level was met with strong buying interest, triggering a swift rebound. Price is now consolidating around $105,600, having reclaimed both the 200 EMA ($104,924) and the 200 SMA ($104,816), which had previously acted as dynamic resistance during the pullback. This reclaim is a notable technical development and suggests bulls are regaining short-term control.
Volume spikes during the bounce add weight to the move, while shorter-term moving averages like the 34 EMA and 50 SMA are now sloping upward, further supporting the bullish case. Still, BTC must break decisively above $106,600 — a recent lower high — to confirm a shift in trend structure.
Above that, the $109,300 resistance stands as the final barrier before retesting all-time highs. On the downside, holding $103,600 remains critical. Losing that level would invalidate the current bounce and open the door to a deeper correction below $100,000.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Sebastian’s journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies.
To share his insights with others, Sebastian became an active contributor to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn. His focus on fintech and crypto-related topics quickly established him as a trusted voice in the online crypto community. Sebastian’s goal was to educate and inform his audience about the latest trends and insights in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.
To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance. The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology.
Sebastian’s passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K reports, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance.
Sebastian’s journey as a crypto pioneer has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable contributor to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and helping to shape the future of this revolutionary technology.
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