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The daily XRP chart has slipped back into a state of suspended animation just when bulls needed decisive follow-through, according to the Ichimoku-centric assessment shared by crypto strategist Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX). “I would be surprised to see $3, let alone ATH in June,” the analyst wrote after posting the chart, lamenting that “the window of opportunity was missed” for both the dollar and Bitcoin pairs.
XRP Bulls Miss Their Shot
The chart Dr Cat circulated shows XRP-USD grinding along the lower edge of the kumo around $2.14 after a failed attempt to reclaim the flat Kijun-sen that has flattened near $2.35. Price action pierced the cloud top in early May on robust volume, but follow-through stalled and the token has now printed two consecutive closes back inside the cloud. The Tenkan-sen has curled beneath the Kijun-sen, signalling waning short-term momentum, while the Chikou span (lagging line) is trapped in overlapping candles—classic signs of neutrality rather than outright weakness, yet miles away from the bullish alignment required for an explosive trend.
Dr Cat argues that Ichimoku bull markets do not emerge spontaneously; they “take a lot of time and effort,” typically at least one full 26-period rotation, to rebuild after a failed attack. “If the window of opportunity is missed and these conditions are not utilized, it’s not a good sign,” he cautioned, adding that the most optimistic scenario now implies “at least 1 standard 26-candles cycle to retry.” On a daily chart that translates to roughly a month, leaving any breakout attempt realistically postponed to July or August and, if momentum continues to lag, potentially November.
Lower-timeframe data paint a harsher picture. The analyst points to “consistent selling pressure on lower medium timeframes without any sign of strength,” noting that XRP/BTC has sunk to the 2041-satoshi monthly support and is failing to bounce. The 2041 level—the exact value where the cloud thins dramatically later in the year—has become the fulcrum for Dr Cat’s broader thesis: if it holds through summer, the token could launch a thinner-cloud break in November when “the XRPBTC kumo is very thin and easy to break.”
The medium-term stakes are clear on the weekly template, where Dr Cat says “there is nothing bullish.” The weekly kumo is widening in front of price, while the Tenkan-Kijun bear cross remains unresolved. Because trend-following traders typically want to see candle bodies and the Chikou span clear both the cloud and historical price structure, the current setup offers few immediate catalysts. Even so, the monthly view retains a more constructive look on the USD pair—a reminder that secular strength is not altogether lost, merely dormant.
In the near term, the analyst sees a real danger of cascading toward $1.89, a price zone that coincides with the flat bottom of April’s cloud twist and a visible shelf of historical volume accumulation. Should that level give way, the chart offers scant support until the $1.70 region where the March spike tail began.
Despite the downbeat tone Dr Cat stops short of declaring a bear market. “The good news is that 3D is still NOT ready to trend bearish at all on the USD pair,” he wrote, underscoring that closing prices have not yet delivered a decisive shift below the three-day Kijun-sen. If the token can hold cloud support into July, another push toward the upper cloud boundary near $2.40 could materialise. Only a clean break above that level, accompanied by a bullish Tenkan-Kijun cross and a Chikou span that punches above historical price, would force a reassessment of the $3 ceiling before year-end.
For now, however, the roadmap remains one of patience. “All in all, my most bullish case expectation for June is neutral price action below ATH,” Dr Cat reiterated, positioning November—when the cloud on the XRP/BTC pair narrows to its thinnest width in years—as the next credible launch window. Until then, traders eyeing a resurgence must watch that 2041-satoshi floor and be prepared for several more weeks of sideways drift—or a sudden downside probe toward $1.89—before the larger trend declares its verdict.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.17.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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