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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio is getting high, but still outside this extreme territory.
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Yet To Surpass +1 SD Line
In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin is currently looking from the perspective of the MVRV Ratio. The “MVRV Ratio” is a popular indicator that, in short, tells us about how the value held by the investors as a whole compares against their initial investment.
When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the holders are carrying more than they put in. In other words, they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, the indicator being under the threshold suggests the overall network is underwater.
The analytics firm has used the MVRV Ratio to define pricing bands that correspond to extreme deviations from the average investor profitability (that is, the mean value of the MVRV Ratio). These bands help point out periods where investor profits/losses are unusually high.
Below is the chart shared by Glassnode in the report that shows the trend in these pricing bands for Bitcoin over the last few years.
As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin price has been trading above the mean level of this model since a while now. Recently, the asset has also broken above the +0.5 standard deviations (SD) line.
This line corresponds to the price at which the MVRV Ratio attains a value that’s 0.5 standard deviations above the all-time mean. At present, the level is situated around $100,200.
The level that BTC is yet to surpass in this latest rally is the +1 SD one, located at $119,400. From the chart, it’s visible that the cryptocurrency breaking above this line has generally led to a top for its price.
The explanation behind this pattern lies in the fact that the larger investor profits grow, the more tempted holders become to take them. At extreme deviations of the MVRV Ratio, selling pressure from holders giving in to this temptation becomes significant, hence why the asset approaches a long-term top.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has breached the +1 SD level of the model on two occasions, ending up with the formations of the March 2024 and December 2024 peaks. For now, the current rally is still below this level, but above the +0.5 SD that also corresponds to a significant level of gains.
“This suggests the market is relatively heated, but arguably still has room for further expansion before the unrealized profit held by investors reaches an extreme level above +1σ,” explains the analytics firm.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has seen some pullback during the past day as its price is down to $105,900.
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
