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Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,000, marking a marginal decline of 0.6% over the past 24 hours. Despite this short-term dip, the broader market trend remains intact, with Bitcoin recording an approximate 15% gain over the past month.
This performance comes after BTC set a new all-time high just above the $111,000 mark a few days ago, continuing its strong upward momentum through Q2 2025.
Burak Kesmeci, a contributor on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, recently discussed the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio in his latest analysis, “Bitcoin MVRV: Will the Long-Term Downtrend Break This Time?”
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, effectively measuring holders’ profitability and offering insights into market sentiment and potential turning points.
MVRV Ratio Approaches Crucial Resistance
In his analysis, Kesmeci highlighted the importance of the 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA365) as a benchmark for the MVRV metric. Historically, when Bitcoin’s MVRV crosses above and maintains weekly closes over the SMA365, it typically signals sustained upward momentum.
Kesmeci provided the example from April 2025, when the MVRV ratio exceeded the SMA365, corresponding with Bitcoin’s substantial price increase from around $94,000 to $111,000, subsequently setting a new record high.
Currently, the MVRV stands at 2.36, comfortably above the SMA365 level of 2.14. However, the analyst points out a significant resistance looming at 2.93, a critical historical level where previous rallies encountered headwinds.
The upcoming test at this resistance could indicate whether Bitcoin will sustain its upward trajectory or experience a period of stabilization or correction. Kesmeci emphasized caution, suggesting that traders carefully monitor the MVRV behavior, as approaching these levels often prompts market participants to reassess risk.
Bitcoin Retail Investors Remain Cautiously Absent
Another factor shaping Bitcoin’s market conditions is the noticeable lack of retail investor engagement. Kesmeci observed that despite Bitcoin achieving new record highs in the second quarter of 2025, retail investor participation, measured by transfer volumes in smaller denominations (under $10,000), remains relatively subdued.
While Bitcoin’s price trajectory has remained robust, retail volumes have seen minimal increases, indicating the current rally is primarily driven by institutional or large-scale investors.
Historically, retail investor participation has served as an essential driver for sustained bull markets, amplifying price movements initially propelled by institutional investments.
Kesmeci notes that past major rallies, such as the one observed in 2020-2021, gained significant momentum when retail investors actively joined in. Thus, a critical aspect moving forward will be monitoring retail activity.
Any uptick in retail investment could potentially catalyze further Bitcoin appreciation, reinforcing recent gains and setting the stage for a broader market rally.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.
Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.
Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.
When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)
Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.
In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.
Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”
PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.
Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
