Bitcoin Upward Trend ‘Fragile’ As Spot Market Volume Drops — A Cause For Alarm?

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Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has displayed strong bullish momentum, breaking through several resistance levels to reclaim six-figure valuation and forge a new all-time high. After breaching its previous all-time-high price, the premier cryptocurrency has rekindled positive sentiments regarding its growth across the cryptocurrency market. As BTC continues to grow, however, recent on-chain data suggests that investors may need to check their optimism and approach the market with caution.

Futures Surge, Spot Falls — Binance Data Signals Need For Caution 

In a May 24 post on social media platform X, on-chain analyst Darkfost reported that trader activity in the Bitcoin futures market on Binance has slightly increased since May 5, while the spot market activity has dwindled considerably.

This on-chain observation is based on two metrics: the Daily Binance Future Trade Volume and the Trading Volume on Futures and Spot. As their names suggest, these metrics track the trading volume across various markets on the world’s largest exchange.

When the Future Trading Volume metric has a high value, it typically suggests a growing appetite for short-term bets on BTC. On the other hand, a low value implies less willingness of futures traders to bet on Bitcoin’s movement in the short term.

For the spot market, a high value on the metric mirrors investors’ inclination towards long-term bets on Bitcoin.  Meanwhile, a low value often indicates that investors suggest reduced faith in the long-term promise of the flagship cryptocurrency. 

Bitcoin
Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X

According to data shared by Darkfost, the increase in futures activity, combined with the decrease in spot market activity, has created an imbalance in market dynamics. This current imbalance hints at a rise in speculative trading, meaning investors are now more motivated by risk-on sentiment, rather than long-term belief in the cryptocurrency. 

According to the analyst, this inclination to place bets on BTC’s short-term movement can heighten volatility, especially when these bets are not backed by strong spot demand to support the trend. “This increase in risk-taking on the market makes the trend more fragile and calls for heightened caution before making investment decisions,” Darkfost ended with a warning note.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance 

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $107,770, reflecting a 0.2% increase in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is up by over 4% in the past seven days.

Bitcoin
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Opeyemi Sule

Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.

Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.

Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.

When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.

Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K.
Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.

Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.

Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.

Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.

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