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Bitcoin dipped marginally after reaching a new peak above $97,000 on May 2. It retreated to just below $94,000, a 3% to 4% decline from its recent high. Although short-term price movements are keeping traders nervous, longer-term on-chain data is beginning to exhibit signs that may influence what happens next.
Index Reading Indicates A Potential Early Bull Market
One gauge, which is referred to as the Bitcoin Composite Index v2.0, is now standing at a reading of 0.8. The index mixes price action with blockchain activity and attempts to weigh where Bitcoin could be going. For analyst Constantin Kogan, a reading on this scale has previously appeared ahead of some massive price rallies, such as in 2017 and 2021.
Kogan described how if this number rises to 1.0 and holds, Bitcoin may begin to accelerate significantly faster. The index isn’t quite there now—but it’s heading in the right direction. One of the most important components of the index, the “Running ATH Price,” has begun trending upward too. This suggests that additional buyers are entering the market and faith may be on the rise.
📈 The upward momentum in Bitcoin is just starting to build, with on-chain metrics like the Bitcoin Composite Index signaling the beginning of a bull market. The index has already reached 0.8 (80%). Here are three possible scenarios:
🚀 Bullish: BTC could surge to… pic.twitter.com/8bZ4vmr2CH
— Constantin Kogan (@constkogan) May 4, 2025
Price Target May Hit $175K If Momentum Continues
If Bitcoin maintains its momentum and drives the Composite Index to more than 1.0, analysts predict the price to rise sharply. The target range given is between $150,000 and $175,000. That’s if bullish momentum accelerates and past trends are repeated.
But if the index remains wedged between 0.8 and 1.0, Bitcoin may stall for a bit. That means a range-bound market, ranging from $90,000 to $110,000. Kogan also highlighted a third, less probable route—if the index falls below 0.75. Then Bitcoin may correct back to $70,000 to $85,000.
Supply Data Shows Where Buyers Stepped In
The second part of the puzzle is from the UTXO Realized Price Distribution chart, also referred to as the URPD chart. Provided by analyst Checkmate, it plots where the holders of Bitcoin last transferred their coins. This provides a sense of who purchased when—and at what price.
A huge segment of buyers appears to have entered between $93,000 and $98,000. That region is currently behaving as a crucial supply zone. It’s the region where investors have just bought Bitcoin and may hold on or sell based on what follows.
Market Awaits Clear Move From Current Zone
Bitcoin is squarely in the middle of that range at about $94,000. As Checkmate points out, the next move will depend on whether price breaks out strongly or gets rejected. A strong breakout, evidenced by a powerful daily candle, could turn recent supply into profit and propel prices higher. But if the price can’t rise through this area, it could create a lower high and attract additional selling pressure.
For the moment, Bitcoin sits in wait mode. Traders and analysts are monitoring both the Composite Index and supply figures to determine whether the current lull becomes the next leg up—or a further step down.
Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView
They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.
Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).
Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!
So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).
Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.
Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.
Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.
Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.
So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.
Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
