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The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed in a report how sell-side pressure may see an uptick from Bitcoin long-term holders around this price level.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Profit Will Hit 350% At 99,900
In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend related to the Bitcoin long-term holders. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago.
The LTHs make up for one of the two main BTC holder cohorts divided on the basis of holding time, with the other side being known as the “short-term holders” (STHs).
Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point, so the LTHs with their long holding times can be considered more resolute than the STHs.
Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows how the total supply held by these HODLers has changed during the last couple of years.
As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin LTH Supply has witnessed an increase over the past two months or so, a sign that some STHs have been maturing into the cohort. In total, the metric has gone up by 254,000 BTC during this period.
While the LTHs tend to be resolute entities, it’s not as if they never sell at all. From the chart, it’s apparent that these diamond hands took profits during both the major rallies from last year.
Recently, BTC has once again been trying to put together bullish momentum, but the continued uptrend in the LTH Supply implies these HODLers haven’t decided to sell yet.
As for when this cohort would become enticed enough to sell, perhaps history can provide a hint or two.
In the chart, Glassnode has attached the data for the average cost basis or Realized Price of the LTHs and some price lines that correspond to a specific degree of profit/loss for this cohort.
At present, the BTC price is far above the LTH Realized Price, so the members of this group would be carrying a significant amount of profit. Despite this fact, these HODLers don’t seem to be willing to part with their coins just yet.
As for when their tune might change, the report has explained:
Historically speaking, the Long-Term Holder cohort typically ramps up their spending pressure when the average member is holding a +350% unrealized profit margin.
Based on their current cost basis, the LTHs can be expected to reach this 350% profit threshold when Bitcoin hits the $99,900 mark. Thus, if BTC’s recovery run continues this far, it’s possible that the cryptocurrency might find some trouble due to the HODLer selling.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $96,500, up around 4% in the last seven days.
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.
Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.
In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.
Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.
Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..
Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.
Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.
As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.
Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.
Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.
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