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Bitcoin is facing a crucial test as its price continues to swing without clear direction, navigating a tense and uncertain macroeconomic environment. While volatility persists, many analysts believe the worst phase of the correction may be over. After dropping over 30% from its all-time high, Bitcoin has managed to hold above key support levels, reinforcing short-term optimism.
However, global tensions—driven by escalating trade disputes and aggressive tariff policies from the US—are shaking financial markets. The specter of a global recession looms large, making investors cautious across both traditional and digital asset classes.
Despite the noise, on-chain data from Glassnode adds a layer of optimism. According to their latest analysis, 63% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in at least one year. This historic level of dormant supply highlights the growing conviction among long-term holders, who are weathering the current volatility without panic.
Such behavior reinforces the belief that Bitcoin’s foundation remains solid, even as short-term traders exit the market. The strong hands are holding firm, and their resilience could lay the groundwork for the next major move—once macroeconomic conditions begin to stabilize.
Bitcoin Holds Strong Amid Global Volatility: Rising Long-Term Conviction
Massive price swings continue to shake both crypto and equities markets as volatility intensifies in response to rising global tensions and unresolved macroeconomic threats. Bitcoin, however, has held strong above the $81K level, suggesting that a potential recovery may be taking shape.
The 90-day pause on U.S. tariffs—excluding China—offered temporary relief, but uncertainty still dominates investor sentiment. Ongoing trade conflicts between the United States and China threaten global economic stability, with many analysts warning of a potential recession if no resolution is reached. These fears are weighing heavily on risk assets across the board.
Despite the challenging backdrop, Bitcoin’s performance suggests underlying resilience. Bulls are gradually regaining momentum after the recent sharp correction, and many market watchers believe the worst phase of the drawdown may be over.
Adding to the optimism, top analyst Quinten Francois shared Glassnode data revealing that 63% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in at least a year. This metric, often associated with strong long-term conviction, shows that the majority of Bitcoin holders are choosing to hold through volatility rather than sell into weakness. It reflects a maturing investor base with confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, even amid global uncertainty.
If current support levels continue to hold and macro conditions stabilize, Bitcoin may be on the verge of a sustained recovery.
BTC Price Stalls Below Key Resistance After Bullish Surge
Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,600 following a strong surge that helped the asset recover from recent lows. The move has brought some short-term optimism to the market, especially as BTC managed to reclaim the $81K level—a key support zone that now needs to hold for bullish momentum to continue.
However, significant resistance lies ahead. The price stopped near the 4-hour 200 Moving Average, currently sitting around $83,500. This technical level has consistently acted as a short-term barrier since Bitcoin lost the $100K mark, and bulls need a decisive breakout above it to confirm the beginning of a true reversal.
If Bitcoin can break and hold above $83,500, the next immediate target is the $85K zone. Reclaiming that range could open the path for a push toward the $88K–$90K resistance band and potentially resume the longer-term uptrend.
On the flip side, failing to hold above $81K would signal weakness and likely invite renewed selling pressure. A breakdown below $80K would reinforce bearish sentiment, possibly triggering a fresh wave of panic selling and sending BTC back toward the $75K support zone. Bulls must act quickly to defend current levels and push higher.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Sebastian’s journey into the world of crypto began four years ago, driven by a fascination with the potential of blockchain technology to revolutionize financial systems. His initial exploration focused on understanding the intricacies of various crypto projects, particularly those focused on building innovative financial solutions. Through countless hours of research and learning, Sebastian developed a deep understanding of the underlying technologies, market dynamics, and potential applications of cryptocurrencies.
To share his insights with others, Sebastian became an active contributor to online discussions on platforms like X and LinkedIn. His focus on fintech and crypto-related topics quickly established him as a trusted voice in the online crypto community. Sebastian’s goal was to educate and inform his audience about the latest trends and insights in the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.
To further enhance his expertise, Sebastian pursued a UC Berkeley Fintech: Frameworks, Applications, and Strategies certification. This rigorous program equipped him with valuable skills and knowledge regarding Financial Technology, bridging the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance. The certification deepened his understanding of the broader financial landscape and its intersection with blockchain technology.
Sebastian’s passion for finance and writing is evident in his work. He enjoys delving into financial research, analyzing market trends, and exploring the latest developments in the crypto space. In his spare time, Sebastian can often be found immersed in charts, studying 10-K reports, or engaging in thought-provoking discussions about the future of finance.
Sebastian’s journey as a crypto pioneer has been marked by a relentless pursuit of knowledge and a dedication to sharing his insights. His ability to navigate the complex world of crypto, combined with his passion for financial research and communication, makes him a valuable contributor to the industry. As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Sebastian remains at the forefront, providing valuable insights and helping to shape the future of this revolutionary technology.
Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
