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On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%–4.5% range – and Bitcoin reacted instantly. The pause, while widely anticipated, came with a slightly revised outlook that includes a slower timeline for future rate cuts and a notable adjustment to the central bank’s balance sheet reduction pace.
According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, the Fed’s “Dot Plot” now indicates only two 25 basis-point rate cuts for this year—fewer than many market participants expected in December. Policymakers stressed that while interest rates remain in restrictive territory, the timing of actual cuts hinges on the path of economic indicators, particularly inflation and employment.
However, the latest statement no longer asserts that inflation and employment are “in balance,” reflecting the Committee’s growing concern about economic uncertainty. But perhaps the most significant pivot was the Fed’s announcement that it will slow the reduction of its bond holdings, commonly known as “quantitative tightening” (QT).
Beginning in April, the monthly runoff for government bonds will drop from $25 billion to $5 billion—a substantial downshift that many analysts consider a prelude to a more accommodative stance if economic or market conditions deteriorate.
What This Means For Bitcoin
Shortly after the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin rallied roughly 4–5%, briefly surpassing the USD 86,000 level. Nik Bhatia—founder of The Bitcoin Layer and author of Bitcoin Age—took to his latest video update to dissect the decision’s implications. “Bitcoin up 4% on the news that the Fed slows QT and is still committed to cutting interest rates,” Bhatia said at the start of his analysis, noting that the market had been laser-focused on whether the central bank would modify its quantitative tightening approach.
Bhatia explained how the reduction of the monthly runoff cap from $25 billion to $5 billion can loosen liquidity constraints in the overall system: “Now the Fed is also still contracting its balance sheet, but now it will do so by only five billion a month as opposed to 25 billion a month, and that is a material change,” he said.
“This isn’t some, ‘Hey, we’re on the cusp of QE now just ‘cause we went from 25 to a five,’ but the first step is to get the balance sheet to stop shrinking … so that if the Fed needs to pivot, it can go quickly from 5 billion in QT a month to some modest expansion.”
Bhatia underscored that such a move can fuel market risk appetite: “The market sees the Fed for what it is: it supports credit creation which expands balance sheets across the world, and that flow ends up in asset prices … some of those assets can be stocks, Bitcoin—[and] other financial assets.”
Other experts are even more drastic in their assessment. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated via X: “JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE. Was BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.”
Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, pretty much agrees: “After last night, QT is effectively dead (for some time). Treasury volatility has backed right off and is now mirroring the decline in DXY from earlier this month. This is all extremely liquidity-positive.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $85,881.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Jake Simmons, a dedicated crypto journalist, has been passionate about Bitcoin since 2016 when he first learned about it. Through his extensive work with NewsBTC.com and Bitcoinist.com, Jake has become a trusted voice in the crypto community, guiding newcomers and seasoned enthusiasts alike towards a deeper understanding of this dynamic field.
His mission is simple yet profound: to demystify Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and make them accessible to everyone.
With a professional career in the Bitcoin and crypto scene that began right after graduating with a degree in Information Systems in 2017, Jake has immersed himself in the industry. Jake joined the NewsBTC Group in late 2022. His educational background provides him with the technical prowess and analytical skills necessary to dissect complex topics and present them in an understandable format. Whether you are a casual reader curious about Bitcoin or an investor seeking to navigate the latest market trends, Jake’s insights offer valuable perspectives that bridge the gap between complex technology and everyday usage.
Jake is not just a reporter on technological trends; he is a firm believer in the transformative potential of Bitcoin over traditional fiat currencies. To him, the current financial system is on the brink of chaos, propelled by unchecked government actions and flawed Keynesian economic policies. Drawing from the principles of the Austrian school of economics, Jake views Bitcoin not merely as a digital asset but as a crucial step towards rectifying a failing monetary system. His libertarian views reinforce his stance that just as the church was separated from the state, so too should money be freed from governmental control.
For Jake, Bitcoin represents more than just an investment; it’s a peaceful revolution. He envisions a future where Bitcoin fosters a sustainable and responsible financial framework for generations to come. His advocacy is not about opposition but about evolution, about laying the groundwork for a system that prioritizes transparency and equity over secrecy and inequality.
As a journalist, Jake’s articles are crafted with the precision of a scholar and the passion of a true believer. He provides not only news but also thoughtful analysis that connects the dots between daily developments and larger economic theories. His work is a beacon for those lost in the technical jargon often associated with crypto discussions, illuminating the practical implications and benefits of these technologies.
In summary, Jake Simmons is not just reporting on a revolution; he wants to be part of it, fully committed to enhancing public understanding and adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. His work is more than just a collection of articles; it’s a resource, a guide, and a companion for anyone ready to explore the potential of this digital frontier. Whether you are taking your first steps into crypto or are a veteran looking to stay on top of the latest trends, Jake’s insights provide clarity and foresight in an often unpredictable industry. Join him on this journey to reshape the world of finance, one post at a time.
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