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The US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing one of its largest weekly declines since 2013, fuelling optimism for a potential rally among risk-on assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). The last time the DXY saw such a sharp pullback was during the height of the FTX fiasco in November 2022, which coincided with a Bitcoin bottom.
Will Bitcoin See An Uptrend?
BTC is down nearly 10% over the past two weeks, largely due to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and concerns over trade tariffs from the US against Canada, Mexico, and China.
Since March 3, the DXY has slid more than 3%, tumbling from 107 to 103 at the time of writing. This decline has sparked hope among cryptocurrency investors for a potential rally. Historical data supports this outlook.
In addition to the $15,000 BTC bottom formed in November 2022, the DXY has experienced similar sharp declines on two other occasions – during the COVID crash in March 2020 and back in the 2015 bear market when the premier cryptocurrency traded at $250.
On all three occasions when the DXY dropped more than -4 standard deviations, BTC formed a bottom followed by a trend reversal that saw the digital asset resume its bullish momentum. Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader shared their thoughts on the DXY-BTC relationship.
In an X post, the analyst noted that whenever the DXY Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned bearish, BTC has rallied. The analyst illustrated this with the following chart.
Fellow crypto analyst Rekt Capital had a similar perspective. The analyst emphasized that BTC has likely formed a higher low after another downside deviation, which saw the cryptocurrency hit a low of $78,258 on February 28.
Important To Clear The $90,000 Resistance
Another crypto trader, Daan Crypto Trader, hinted that BTC may target new all-time highs (ATH) around $120,000 if it continues to consolidate near range lows. The trader explained:
We’ve seen this during every consolidation this cycle where it breaks lower, fails to see continuation, retakes the range and moves higher from there. Let’s see how this one turns out. That ~$90K level remains key.
Recent analysis from CryptoQuant supports the view that BTC may have already formed a bottom. Additionally, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted that BTC has hit oversold levels not seen since August 2024, likely signalling a trend reversal in the short-term.
That said, BTC is also facing a bearish deviation as it fills a new Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap, which may dampen hopes for a swift price recovery. At press time, BTC is trading at $86,870, down 3.3% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, charts from X and Tradingview.com
Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand.
Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance.
In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects.
A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution.
When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights.
Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries.
Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all.
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